What Really Happened on Third Downs: Notre Dame v. Michigan State

For a team that’s started the season an acceptable 3-1, the angst among ND fans is surprisingly high.  Has the team been perfect?  No.  Far from it in fact.  If you’re a fan of the team and want to avoid the grand conspiracy theories, I’d suggest you refrain from visiting many of the normal chat boards which amazingly are flooded with calls to fire everyone on the team.  Fire the student-athletes.  Fire Diaco.  Fire Kelly.  It’s really and truly mind boggling.

There are reasons for concern, and Michigan State did not do much to quell those fears.  The offense lacks rhythm.  The rushing attack has gained very little traction.  I’ve been pushing the position that the rushing game isn’t that different from last year’s squad season-to-date, but the fact is, the ground game is reverting whereas last year at this time it was strengthening.  The defense looked better, but I’m reluctant to give it too much credit.  Michigan State might be the worst offense the team has faced thus far.  Oklahoma just days away will be a better indicator of whether the defense is making strides or not.

With all that said, the seeming lightning rod of controversy this past weekend was the offense’s decision to throw the ball deep so frequently.  From a scheme standpoint, this was the correct game plan.  Michigan State crowded the line all game to stop the run.  They played tight man coverage on the outside and a shallow, aggressive zone on the interior.  They wanted to take away the screen game and the short passing game and force Tommy Rees to beat them deep.  Notre Dame made the decision to accommodate Michigan State.  The reads for Rees were almost all pre-snap.  Whichever corner was playing up the most became the target if Rees made the decision that there was a one-on-one match-up.  Several times he read this wrong and threw into double coverage.  Fortunately, the pass interference gods favored the Catholic Irish on this day.

The other area of ire from many I saw was the third down play calling.  Watching the game, I had the same reaction as many “why the heck do we keep lining up empty and throwing deep???”  As so often happens, anecdotal observation was misleading.  Here’s the breakdown of third down plays:

3^rd Down Plays Breakdown:

Situation:	Attempts:	Conversions:	Conversion %:
Total	17	6	35.2
Passing	11	5	45.5
--- 5 or less to go	6	3	50
--- +5 to go	5	2	40
Running	6	1	16.7
--- 5 or less to go	5	1	20
--- +5 to go*	1	0	0
By Package:	---	---	---
--- 2WR/1RB/2TE	5	1	20
--- 3WR/1RB/1TE	2	1	50
--- 4WR/(1)RB/1TE	9	4	44.4
--- Victory	1	0	0
First Half:	11	5	45.5
Second Half:	6	1	16.7
Own:	8	3	37.5
Opponent:	9	3	33.3
By Back:	---	---	---
--- Atkinson	2	1	50
--- Carlisle	9	4	44.4
--- Folston	1	0	0
--- McDaniel	4	1	25
--- Other*	1	0	0

* 3^rd and 14 kneel down at end of game.

On the day, Notre Dame converted just 6 of 17 official third down attempts.  The 35.2% conversion percentage was Notre Dame’s lowest for any game so far this season and well below the season average just below 50% (30/61).  This number is somewhat misleading.  Notre Dame benefited from four pass interference calls on third down that are not recorded as official attempts.  If we add those in, the team ended up 10/21 on third downs.  Additionally, one of the “failed” attempts was Tommy Rees taking a knee on the final play of the game.  Taking that into account, the team practically finished 10/20 on converting third downs into first downs.  50%, or right at season average.

So….what about those third down passes?  As highlighted above, Notre Dame attempted a pass six times on third and five or less.  They converted three of these (50%) for a first down.  From an expectation standpoint, this shouldn’t be seen as a horrendous performance.  Rees’ overthrows throughout the course of the game may have led many fans to believe that culprit for poor third down performance was also long passing.  Overall, passing the ball the Irish converted five of eleven attempts excluding the pass interference calls.  If we include those, then the Irish converted nine of fifteen third downs when attempting a pass.  Debating the validity of the pass interference calls is a different debate.  If we’re assessing the reality of actual results, then the Irish were above 60% when passing.

The far bigger issue was converting rushing attempts for first down.  Five times the Irish lined up on third and three or shorter and chose to run the ball.  The team was only successful on one of those attempts.  Every back was responsible for this failure.  Atkinson, Folston, and Carlisle each received one carry under these circumstances and each failed.  Even the ever growing legend of Cam McDaniel was successful on only one of two attempts under these circumstances.  Whether these failures were the result of an anemic running game or Michigan State’s game plan, Notre Dame needed to pass the ball on third down.  Given Michigan State’s conscious decision to jump the short crossing routes all game, the decision to throw deep was correct even if difficult to comprehend when the team only needed a couple of yards.

As highlighted above, all five rushing attempts came from the 2WR/1RB/2TE set.  This is Notre Dame’s “power” set to the extent they have one.  The major culprit for this set’s failure has been the horrendous play of Ben Koyack.  The only area of Koyack’s season that’s been consistent is his inability to effectively block.  Given that this is the only time he gets on the field, it is troubling and infuriating to see him continued to be used.  He has not been able to lead blog at all, and his pass protection has been equally bad.  While the fans may be clamoring to see Troy Niklas get more looks as a receiver, the team cannot even deploy him into routes due to Koyack’s ineffectiveness.

Finally, the usage of running backs has been questioned.  One place the decision should be simpler is third downs.  Amir Carlisle’s versatility continues to keep him in the game more frequently on third downs than the other backs and for good reason.  Carlisle is trusted the most as a pass catching option if asked to line up in the empty backfield set, and the coaching staff appears to have faith in him overall as a pass blocker as well.  Without trying to harp on it too much, all four of the pass interference calls occurred when Carlisle was on the field.  Going back to the effective 10/20 Notre Dame was on third downs, that means that Carlisle was on the field for eight of those….or 80% of Notre Dame’s successful attempts.

For expectations to rise for the remainder of the season, the team is going to have to improve in many areas.  Third downs is one of them.  However, for those wanting to bash Kelly for calling so many third down passes, they might want to reconsider the results.

- Moons