A Rush to Judgment? Notre Dame Running at the Quarter Mark

We’ve already hit the quarter mark of the 2013 season, and it’s amazing the difference a year can make.  At this point last year, Notre Dame had already had the thrill of starting the season in Ireland, gained a respect for Tommy Rees the reliever, and following the 20-3 domination of Michigan State, the fan base had seen the first glimpses of what turned into an amazing season for the defensive unit.  Everett Golson hadn’t been let outside, let alone off his leash.

This year’s been a reality check that the Irish are not all the way back.  Yes, this is a more talented year-to-year team than most of us can remember.  However, Golson’s not at the school, and the defense is far more reminiscent of Kelly’s first two years than last year’s juggernaut.  For the remainder of the week, rather than recounting  the Purdue game, let’s step back and analyze the offensive performance from afar.  First up:  The ND rushing game.

With every week, I seem to be reading more and more about how bad the Irish running game has been.  How the team needs to choose a guy.  That these guys will do better if they’re allowed to hit a rhythm.  All of these rang hollow to me, and I didn’t recall hearing this level of noise about choosing one guy last year, so I thought I’d compare the 2012 start to the 2013.

Let’s first take a look at the team’s base stats through the first 3 games:

2013:

Attempts:  91

Yards:  375

YPC: 4.12

TD:  2

Attempts Per Game:  30.33

Yards Per Game:  125

2012:

Attempts:  116

Yards:  467

YPC:  4.02

TD:  7

Attempts Per Game:  38.67

Yards Per Game:  155.67

Key Comp:  Purdue

	2012:	2013:
Attempts:	36	37
Yards:	52	91
Yards Per Carry:	1.44	2.46
TDs	1	1

The first instinct about the Irish ground attack is to believe that it has seriously reverted in some fashion.  It’s not quite so clear this statement is true.  Were the Irish more dedicated to running the ball in 2012?  Yes.  The 2013 team is averaging 8 fewer carries a game than it was a year ago this time.  Some of that has to do with the difference in quarterback.  Everett Golson had only participated in 3 college games at this point last year, while Tommy Rees is a senior and dare I say leader for the 2013 team.  However, the yards per carry suggests that things are much more even than we might give it credit for.  When cast against the Cinderella run of last year, there’s a tendency to forget that the Irish struggled to run the ball effectively and consistently.  So far, versus the one common opponent, Purdue, it’s more visually apparent that the team is not a lot different than it was a year ago.  There’s no doubt that the Purdue defensive front was superior in 2012 than the 2013 version, but from an observational standpoint, there isn’t any reason to be judging the rushing attack more harshly.   Notre Dame’s 1.44 yard per carry performance wasn’t more aesthetically pleasing just because that front line was better.

In 2012, Notre Dame didn’t play Michigan until game 4 of the season, however, the pattern holds.  In 2012, Notre Dame ran for 94 yards on 31 carries (3.03 YPC) and one touchdown.  This year:  19 for 96 (5.05 YPC) and no touchdowns.  That lack of a touchdown certainly looms large knowing the result, but let me emphasize something:  Versus the two opponents Notre Dame’s played in 2013 that they played in 2012, they’ve run the ball better on a per carry basis each time this season. 

There is plenty of room for improvement, and I’ve been critical the first few games of the team so quickly abandoning the rushing attack.  Contrary to popular belief, the Notre Dame rushing attack has shown incremental per carry improvements in the early going.  Are we just expecting more this year than we did last? 

Rushes by Player:

The fanbase seems to be waiting for one of the stable of running backs to step up and become “the man.”  In 2012, Theo Riddick, Cierre Wood, Cam McDaniel, and George Atkinson all split carries with Wood and Riddick being featured more prominently.  They each had their moments, and they each struggled at times.  Kelly’s philosophy clearly favors a committee format, and I don’t think it should change.  This year Amir Carlisle’s received the most time, some of which is the result of his purported pass catching ability.  Without a threat to run at quarterback, Carlisle’s versatility makes him more well-suited when the team elects to run the hurry up, but I doubt he’ll ever fully establish himself as the man.  Nor should he.  Carlisle, Atkinson, and McDaniel all bring unique skill sets to the table and should continue to see split action.  Add on to that the two freshmen, Greg Bryant and Tarean Folston, who may be even more talented, and I hope the team continues to mix and match and eventually work in the freshmen on a more ordinary basis.  Here are the stat lines for the individual players:

Player:	Attempts:	Yards:	Yards Per Carry:	TD:
Carlisle	30	148	4.93	0
Atkinson	18	98	5.44	1
McDaniel	29	125	4.31	1
Bryant	3	14	4.67	0
Folston	5	14	2.8	0
Rees*	4	-20	-5	0
Team**	2	-4	-2	0
TOTALS:	91	375	4.12	2

* 3 sacks, 1 rush

** Kneel downs at the end of the game

The most disappointing aspect has been the lack of explosive runs.  The Irish have just one run that has gone for 20 or more yards, and that was the very first run of the season, a 45 yard rush by Carlisle.  In fact, the Irish have only 11 rushes that have gone for 10 or more yards.  The breakdown of 10+ yard rushes by carrier goes:  1) Atkinson (4), 2) McDaniel (3), 2) Carlisle (3),  4) Bryant (1).  My guess is this lack of explosion is what has makes the rushing game appear to have reverted.   Interestingly, Atkinson is averaging the most yards per carry and is “tied” for the “team lead” for touchdowns with 1.  That touchdown was a 2-yard goal line carry….

But again, the question should be, was there some drastic difference in 2012 that I’m forgetting?  I decided to run the numbers, and see whether the touches were more focused in 2012 than in 2013.  Here are the top 5 as a percentage of total rushing attempts:

Top 5 Rushers as a Percentage of Total Team Rushes

2012	2013
39.66% Riddick	32.97% Carlisle
17.24% Golson	31.87% McDaniel
12.93% Atkinson	19.78% Atkinson
8.62% Wood	5.49% Folston
7.76% McDaniel	4.40% Rees

Theo Riddick was featured slightly more prominently than Amir Carlisle has been, but it’s important to remember that Cierre Wood was suspended for the first two games of the season.  His return drastically reduced Riddick’s share.  The top 3 rushers this year have accounted for a greater percentage of total carries than the top 3 had at this point in 2012.  In fact, more different players had a rushing attempt last season than we’ve seen this year.  If Carlisle, McDaniel, and Atkinson can all contribute, there’s no reason for BK to come out and declare and RB1.  Sure, we should hope that the team may find a way to disguise packages better and become more explosive, but the notion that the team needs to name “the man” is just revisionist history.  It’s still early, and perhaps Notre Dame fans should be encouraged by the range of options rather than trying to so quickly whittle them down.

Coming up tomorrow:  Tommy Rees season-to-date.

-       Moons

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