Final Score: Yu Darvish - Good, Houston Astros - Awful

Yu-mania (and all the associated “Yu” puns that go with it) is upon us.  While tensions continue to mount with North Korea, America and its pastime are falling in love with another Asian import, and for once it’s not an electronic product, a car, or this guy.  Major League Baseball has an odd habit of having a big opening day of games followed by a relatively light slate, which was just fine as Yu Darvish’s performance against the Astros was more than enough to captivate all audiences.

The stat line is impressive:  8.2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 14 K’s. 

Darvish faced twenty-seven batters (we must use the term liberally when referring to the Astros), and it wasn’t until that twenty-seventh man hit a grounder up the middle that Darvish’s bid for the twenty-fourth perfect game in Major League history came an end.  It would have been Mon-Yu-mental…See, it’s just too easy with this guy’s name, and damn is it annoying.  I’ll take the pledge now to avoid anymore awful “Yu” puns. 

Darvish is a trendy pundit selection for A.L. Cy Young coming into the season because: A) He’s on a good team and should get some wins, B) Has a gaudy strikeout rate (2^nd in the A.L. in 2012 among qualified starters with a 10.4 K/9 rate), and C) is a classic “I’m smarter than you” pick.  It’s no fun for writers and analysts who follow the game to pick Felix Hernandez (2010 winner), Justin Verlander (2011 winner), or David Price (2012 winner) even though all three of those guys are still in the prime of their career.  That would be so passé.  No, the analysts need to pick someone just slightly off the beaten path (even though that path is paved, well-lit, and privately maintained) because if it hits, the analyst gets to puff their chest and walk around with a smug sense of self-confidence often seen on Fox News shows.  It also helps that Darvish is a very, very good pitcher.

Enter tonight’s start.  The analysts mentioned in the paragraph above love to talk “sample size” and not taking any one start too seriously.  Don’t you dare suggest that spring training darling Yasiel Puig is legit to these guys.  They will figuratively, and if close enough to them in a Home Depot literally, take out their pitchforks and attempt to stab you for suggesting spring training results matter or that 60 at bats have any meaningful correlation to long-term success.  All of that, naturally, goes out the window when discussing their pre-season crush’s start versus the lowly Astros.  Sure, they might pay lip service to “it’s only one start,” but similar to the flow of this sentence their quote too will have a “but” attached to it.  As in:

“It’s only one start, but Darvish was absolutely brilliant tonight.”  Or..

“It’s only one start, but the movement and command of the zone Darvish displayed tonight is why [I] am so excited about him this year.”

To be fair, both of these sentences could be true.  They also contain absolutely no added value because at the end of the day, one game, is one game, is one game.  Since 2000, there have been four perfect games in the American League.  They were thrown by:  Mark Buehrle (2009), Dallas Braden (2010), Phillip Humber (2012), and Felix Hernandez (2012).  Exactly zero of those guys won a Cy Young the same year.  Only Felix Hernandez even received a vote for Cy Young the same year.  Hell, it’d be more correct based on the previous 4 perfect games to assume Yu Darvish was facing the Tampa Bay Rays (3/4 occurred versus the Rays), then to assume this near perfect game is any indicator of Cy Young success.  Of course, this wasn’t a perfect game, and Darvish wasn’t facing the Rays.  Instead, he was facing an Astros team that is more popular than a Yu-Darvish-Cy -Young-prediction to finish with the worst record in baseball this year. 

Were I to have to select between predicting Yu Darvish to win the Cy Young or the Houston Astros to actually be no-hit this year, I’d select the latter.  As a matter of fact, I think the Astros might get no-hit multiple times this year.  I don’t want to pile on the Astros.  This is a team taking a radical, aggressive approach to rebuilding not just their major league team but their entire method of operation.  Short-term be damned. 

In 2012, the Astros led all major league teams with a 22.7 K% by their batters.  Since 2005, only the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks had a team K% higher than last year’s Astros.  While strikeout loving players like Jordan Schafer and Bryan Bugosevic are no longer getting consistent at-bats, the Astros have added some other impressive human fans to their everyday projections.  Barring injury, the Astros will likely give at least 400-500 at bats to Rick Ankiel (25% career K-rate), Carlos Pena (26.8%), and Chris Carter (32.5%).  Small sample-size recognized, the Astros have struck out on 42.86% of their at bats over these first two games.  The guy the Astros faced in game 1, Matt Harrison, matched a career high with 9 strikeouts in just 5.2 IP.  Harrison has appeared in 127 major league games and has recorded 7 or more strikeouts in only 10 of those appearances.  It was 2011 the last time Harrison recorded 8 or more strikeouts in a single game.

Just before the season began, the Astros trotted out most of their regulars for a spring training game against the Atlanta Braves and faced Braves rookie Julio Teheran.  The line-up for that game varied very little from the one Darvish faced tonight, and the Astros made Teheran a very happy guy by solidifying his place in the Braves rotation after he managed to throw 6 hitless innings while striking out 10.  This Astros team is bad.  Like, real bad.  And they have the potential to be historically bad.  It’s hard to imagine that they will manage to go 160 more games this season without putting up a goose-egg in the hits column over 9 full innings (as opposed to doing it over just 8.2).

Yu Darvish probably just had the best start he’ll have all season versus an awful line-up.  While it’s fair to applaud his efforts, let’s hold-off on passing out the Cy Young ballots just yet, 

Suing to Gain a Competitive Advantage and Other Non-Sensical Thoughts

John McMickey is a long time Red Sox fan.  I’m sure that’s hard to imagine given his name.  He’s also a huge Dustin Pedroia fan.  During an early September game in 2012, McMickey decided to send Pedroia a quick tweet during the 3^rd inning of a match-up with the New York Yankees.  The color commentator for the Red Sox broadcast had just mentioned that Yankees’ starter Ivan Nova was tipping his pitches by changing arm slot whenver he threw his curveball.  McMickey then sent Pedroia a tweet giving him the heads up.

While against club policy to check or send social media during a game, Pedroia by chance had his phone with him on this night.  While waiting to bat in the bottom of the third, he glanced down at his phone after it buzzed in its pocket and saw:  “@BostonMick: Nova tipping pitches.  Arm high on curve.  #homerunacoming!”  Pedroia responded with a quick reply of “thanks brah,” and then promptly went out, waited for Nova’s arm slot to rise, and then deposited a ball over the green monster on a hanging curve.  McMickey was elated, at least until he checked his mail on October 4….

As McMickey sorted through the various mail inserts, credit card applications, and past due bills, one letter got his attention.  It had the name of a law firm in the top left corner, and it seemed to be a fancy law firm (there were at least 5 last names making up the incoherent partnership title!).   As McMickey read the first paragraph, he was stunned.  Major League Baseball was suing him for tortious contract interference.  They claimed he was well aware that there were team policies in place banning social media communications during games, and that information regarding tipping pitches could not be relayed in the real-time format.  They said he was well aware of it citing a 2011 ESPN story.  By sending that tweet to Pedroia, he had enabled Pedroia to break these rules and compromised the integrity of that September game.  McMickey’s jaw dropped…..

If all of this seems outlandish to you, it should.  After all, the entire account is fictional.  However, after this week’s announcement that Major League Baseball has filed suit against Biogenesis for tortious contract interference for the alleged distribution of PED’s to several major league players, maybe the story isn’t that outlandish afterall.  To be clear, I’m not trying to draw a direct parallel between the use of PED’s and pitch stealing (though the causal connection to unfair competitive advantage is similarly nebulous).  Nor am I suggesting that John McMickey’s tweet amounts to the same degree of conduct that Biogenesis is alleged to be involved with.  However, the validity of Major League Baseball’s ficitional law suit against McMickey and its all too real suit against Biogenesis is quite similar:  It’s not.  The major difference between the two is that Biogenesis has information Major League Baseball wants.  McMickey didn’t. 

It doesn’t take a law degree or knowledge of esoteric latin phrases to know that what Major League Baseball is really after is Biogenesis’ transaction ledgers.  Information they’ve, to this point, been frustrated at trying to obtain.  At its core, Major League Baseball isn’t expecting to get any monetary judgment out of a now defunct pain clinic.  Even if they could prove damages, highly suspect in its own rights, a monetary judgment would be less than a drop in the bucket for an organization as large and wealthy as MLB. 

They don’t need to get to that stage.  All MLB’s lawyers need to do is convince a Florida judge that the claims aren’t baseless on their face, avoid the inevitable Motion to Dismiss that the defense will file, and get to the discovery stage of the law suit.  Don’t expect this process to be smooth or quick. 

WHAT ARE THEY FIGHTING FOR?

Realistically, this could take at least six months to a year just for MLB to obtain any of their much sought information.  Even if they do receive it, a proper follow-up investigation and any related grievance proceedings will take even longer.  As has been widely reported, the main targets of all this are Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun.  By the time Major League Baseball has enough information to take action against these guys, Alex Rodriguez could be retired.  The seasons implicating Braun could be in the distant past, and the torch of “stardom” may have already been passed to the new generation of guys like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.  Which leaves the question, what exactly is Major League Baseball fighting for?

In the coming weeks and months there will be a lot of theories about MLB’s end game.  I’m sure Bud Selig and baseball’s higher ups will cite their commitment to the integrity and good will of baseball being their paramount concerns, but the reactionary nature of this process is an exercise in futility.  Failure to contemporaneously punish player PED use leaves baseball looking like nothing more than a scorned lover.  While trying to exact its revenge, baseball will continuously remind everyone that PED’s still make their way into the game.  They’ll tear down the stars and performances that make the game palatable.  What exactly did International Cycling gain by pursuing Lance Armstrong so far after the fact?  Nothing except relegation to a status as an entirely compromised sport.   I suppose that counts as an end game, just not a good one. 

The only thing we know for certain is that this is not a good business move in the foreseeable short-term.  Major League Baseball will likely end up spending hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars on this process to harm itself.  It would be economically prudent to just let one of these PED fueled players punch Bud Selig in the face.  The result would be the same as the law suit:  Black eye for baseball, diminished reputation for the player. 

IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ‘EM, SUE ‘EM:

There is another perspective to all this legal boxing that needs mention.  Major League Baseball may feel obligated to pursue this lawsuit.  They may feel that in order to honor the terms of the Joint Drug Agreement that they are required to pursue all reasonable measures to uncover violations of the Agreement, and this law suit fits the bill.  Even if nothing comes of it, Major League Baseball can then say “Hey, we did everything we could to stop the abuse.  We tried, so blame the players, not us.”  It’s not a stretch to think that one of Bud Selig’s trusted advisors made this exact point.  “We can win the battle of public opinion about who’s to blame.”

 The problem is baseball is simply trying to save face because they know they’re fighting a losing battle.  Cheaters (if that’s how you perceive them) will always remain a step ahead.  As long as the economic stakes are high enough and a competitive advantage is perceived, some player, somewhere, is still going to try to beat the system.  Baseball can “win” the battle of public opinion and still come out the loser.  When third parties start getting blamed, it’s out of frustration, not commitment to a solution.  This is not just true for professional sports but all walks of life.  Obesity is an issue?  Blame big gulps.  Violence in schools is on the rise.  Blame video games.  The flaw in logic is human nature.  Searching for solutions often leads to ill-advised and resource consuming crusades against speculative “causes” of the problem.  Major League Baseball is just following suit (pun intended). 

By the time this gets settled, which it almost certainly will, baseball will have likely moved onto a more recent crisis of integrity.  Maybe they’ll get what they want, maybe they won’t.  The logic and reason behind all of this may not just be flawed, it may be non-existent.  For now, the only congratulations that go out are to the law firms involved in baseball’s latest crusade, as they’re the only ones who we know for certain will benefit.