On Tuesday, I presented the case about why Notre Dame might
not be doomed to fail against Oklahoma.
I presented the argument that not only has Notre Dame not been
susceptible to the big play but that Oklahoma’s efficient offense is not
necessarily explosive. I followed
up by suggesting that red zone efficiency will be a much larger factor in the
game on Saturday. I wanted to take
at least an anecdotal look at this to see whether the argument holds. Since the Sooners have lost just once
this year, it makes sense to evaluate how KSU’s defense held OU to less than 20
points.
Below is a drive-by-drive analysis for the Sooners. We’re all aware of what 3rd
down efficiency means. It’s the
number of times that a team is able to successfully convert a third down into a
first down. For a team like
Oklahoma that seems to be more efficient than explosive, the notion of moving
the chains is all the more important.
I’ve taken each drive and broken it down play-by-play. Each play is evaluated for efficiency
using some of the measures which the incredibly smart people at Football Outsiders use to measure
play-by-play efficiency. My method is a bit more crude, and yes, sample size is a factor, but efficiency
was measured under the following parameters:
1. Plays deemed efficient will appear in green.
2. Plays deemed inefficient will appear in red.
3. Scoring plays are marked in blue and are always considered efficient.
4. A 1st down play is deemed efficient if the play gains at least one-third of the remaining yards to go to achieve a first down.
5. A 2nd down play is deemed efficient if the play gains at least one-half of the remaining yards to go to achieve a first down.
6. A 3rd (or 4th) down play is deemed efficient if the play gains 100% of the total yards needed to achieve a first down.
7. A play can be efficient that results in a turnover. It’s the yardage that we’re looking at.
8. A punt or field goal is not deemed to be either.
9. A play that has a penalty can be both efficient and inefficient at the same time. However, a penalty which happens pre-snap is determined to be inefficient when scored against the offense.
Got it? No,
well, okay then….Let’s get to the drive summaries anyways:
FIRST QUARTER:
Yard Line:
|
Down:
|
Run:
|
Pass:
|
Penalty:
|
Other:
|
Own 9
|
1
|
7
|
|||
Own 16
|
2
|
4
|
|||
Own 20
|
1
|
10
|
|||
Own 30
|
1
|
8
|
|||
Own 38
|
2
|
4
|
|||
Own 42
|
1
|
11
|
|||
Opp 47
|
1
|
5
|
|||
Opp. 42
|
2
|
0
|
|||
Opp. 42
|
3
|
14
|
|||
Opp. 28
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Opp. 28
|
2
|
10
|
9
|
||
Opp. 9
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Opp. 9
|
2
|
-2
|
|||
Opp. 11
|
3
|
0
|
|||
Opp. 11
|
4
|
FG – 3pts.
|
Total Yards Gained: 80
Efficient Plays: 9/14 = 64%
Inefficient
Plays: 5/14 = 36%
Points: 3
Red Zone?: Yes
Red Zone TD: No
Yard Line:
|
Down:
|
Run:
|
Pass:
|
Penalty:
|
Other:
|
Own 18
|
1
|
3
|
|||
Own 21
|
2
|
5
|
|||
Own 26
|
3
|
1
|
|||
Own 27
|
4
|
Punt
|
Efficient Plays: 1/3 = 33%
Inefficient Plays: 2/3 = 67%
Points: 0
Red Zone?: No
FIRST QUARTER
TOTALS:
Plays: 17
Efficient: 59% (10/17)
Inefficient: 41% (7/17)
Points: 3
Red Zone Attempts: 1
Red Zone TD’s: 0
SECOND QUARTER:
Yard Line:
|
Down:
|
Run:
|
Pass:
|
Penalty:
|
Other:
|
Own 16
|
1
|
-5
|
|||
Own 11
|
1
|
2
|
|||
Own 13
|
2
|
0
|
|||
Own 13
|
3
|
-11
|
Lost Fumble
|
Total Yards Gained: -15
Efficient Plays: 0/4 = 0%
Inefficient Plays: 4/4 = 100%
Points: 0
Red Zone? No
Yard Line:
|
Down:
|
Run:
|
Pass:
|
Penalty:
|
Other:
|
Own 40
|
1
|
2
|
|||
Own 42
|
2
|
13
|
|||
Opp. 45
|
1
|
1
|
|||
Opp. 44
|
2
|
24
|
|||
Opp. 20
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Opp. 20
|
2
|
11
|
|||
Opp. 9
|
1
|
8
|
|||
Opp. 1
|
2
|
-5
|
Lost Fumble
|
Total Yards Gained: 54
Efficient Plays: 4/8 = 50%
Inefficient Plays: 4/8 = 50%
Points: 0
Red Zone? Yes
Red Zone TD? No
Yard Line:
|
Down:
|
Run:
|
Pass:
|
Penalty:
|
Other:
|
Own 25
|
1
|
3
|
|||
Own 28
|
2
|
0
|
|||
Own 28
|
3
|
19
|
|||
Own 47
|
1
|
14
|
|||
Opp. 39
|
1
|
21
|
|||
Opp. 18
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Opp. 18
|
2
|
1
|
|||
Opp. 17
|
3
|
0
|
|||
Opp. 17
|
4
|
FG – 3 pts.
|
Total Yards Gained: 58
Efficient Plays: 3/8 = 38%
Inefficient Plays: 5/8 = 62%
Points: 3
Red Zone? Yes
Red Zone TD? No
SECOND QUARTER
TOTALS:
Plays: 20
Efficient: 35% (7/20)
Inefficient: 65% (13/20)
Points: 3
Red Zone Attempts: 2
Red Zone TD’s: 0
THIRD QUARTER:
Yard Line:
|
Down:
|
Run:
|
Pass:
|
Penalty:
|
Other:
|
Own 25
|
1
|
8
|
|||
Own 33
|
2
|
10
|
|||
Own 43
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Own 43
|
2
|
2
|
|||
Own 45
|
3
|
0
|
|||
Own 45
|
4
|
-5
|
|||
Own 40
|
4
|
Punt
|
Efficient Plays: 2/6 = 33%
Inefficient Plays: 4/6 = 67%
Points: 0
Red Zone? No
Yard Line:
|
Down:
|
Run:
|
Pass:
|
Penalty:
|
Other:
|
Own 12
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Own 12
|
2
|
10
|
|||
Own 22
|
1
|
6
|
|||
Own 28
|
2
|
6
|
|||
Own 34
|
1
|
16
|
|||
50
|
1
|
9
|
|||
Opp. 41
|
2
|
27
|
|||
Opp. 14
|
1
|
5
|
|||
Opp. 9
|
2
|
7
|
|||
Opp. 2
|
1
|
-1
|
|||
Opp. 3
|
2
|
3
|
TD
|
Total Yards Gained: 88
Efficient Plays: 8/11 = 73%
Inefficient Plays: 3/11 = 27%
Points: 7
Red Zone? Yes
Red Zone TD? Yes
Yard Line:
|
Down:
|
Run:
|
Pass:
|
Penalty:
|
Other:
|
Own 4
|
1
|
2
|
|||
Own 6
|
2
|
10
|
|||
Own 16
|
1
|
6
|
|||
Own 22
|
2
|
Interception
|
Total Yards Gained: 18
Efficient Plays: 2/4 = 50%
Inefficient Plays: 2/4 = 50%
Points: 0
Red Zone? No
THIRD QUARTER
TOTALS:
Plays: 21
Efficient: 57% (12/21)
Inefficient: 43% (9/21)
Points: 7
Red Zone Attempts: 1
Red Zone TD’s: 1
FOURTH QUARTER
Yard Line:
|
Down:
|
Run:
|
Pass:
|
Penalty:
|
Other:
|
Own 35
|
1
|
4
|
-10
|
||
Own 29
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Own 29
|
2
|
9
|
|||
Own 38
|
3
|
0
|
|||
Own 38
|
Punt
|
Total Yards Gained: 3
Efficient Plays: 2/5 = 40%
Inefficient Plays: 3/5 = 60%
Points: 0
Red Zone? No
Yard Line:
|
Down:
|
Run:
|
Pass:
|
Penalty:
|
Other:
|
Own 35
|
1
|
8
|
|||
Own 43
|
2
|
4
|
|||
Own 47
|
1
|
-8
|
|||
Own 39
|
2
|
9
|
|||
Own 48
|
3
|
17
|
|||
Opp. 35
|
1
|
11
|
|||
Opp. 24
|
1
|
0
|
|||
Opp. 24
|
2
|
4
|
|||
Opp. 20
|
3
|
10
|
|||
Opp. 10
|
1
|
10
|
TD
|
Total Yards Gained: 65
Efficient Plays: 7/10 = 70%
Inefficient
Plays: 3/10 = 30%
Points: 6 (missed 2 pt. attempt)
Red Zone? Yes
Red Zone TD? Yes
FOURTH QUARTER
TOTALS:
Plays: 15
Efficient: 60% (9/15)
Inefficient: 40% (6/15)
Points: 7
Red Zone Attempts: 1
Red Zone TD’s: 1
GAME TOTALS:
Plays: 73
Efficient: 52% (38/73)
Inefficient: 48% (35/73)
Points: 19
Red Zone Attempts: 5
Red Zone TD’s: 2
Efficiency Passing: 56% (24/43)
Efficiency Running:
56% (15/27)
Efficiency 1st
Down: 50%
Efficiency 2nd
Down: 71%
Efficiency 3rd
Down: 40%
Penalties: 3
Red Zone Attempts: 5
Red Zone Scoring
Percentage: 80%
Red Zone TD
Percentage: 40%
Turnover
Differential: - 3
Longest Pass
Play: 27
Longest Rush
Play: 11
Plays From Scrimmage
25+: 1 (pass, 27)
OBSERVATIONS:
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. It cannot be understated how important
the +3 turnover differential was in this case. The largest being a turnover by Oklahoma on the KSU 1 yard
line. That possession for those
that have looked at the data from Tuesday is the only time this season that
Oklahoma has failed to score some points in the opponent’s red zone.
Oklahoma had 2 touchdowns in this game. Their two touchdowns coincided with the only two drives of the game where over 70% of their plays on the drive were deemed efficient. Oklahoma did not score quickly at any point. Each drive was methodical, and it was only when over 70% of their drive plays were efficient that they could finally break into the Wildcat end zone.
Oklahoma had 2 touchdowns in this game. Their two touchdowns coincided with the only two drives of the game where over 70% of their plays on the drive were deemed efficient. Oklahoma did not score quickly at any point. Each drive was methodical, and it was only when over 70% of their drive plays were efficient that they could finally break into the Wildcat end zone.
What this game does suggest is that my data from Tuesday
could very well be on point.
Oklahoma reached the red zone 5 times. Their season average is 5.5 times a game. However, they scored on only 80% of
their drives which reached the red zone (Season Average: 96.97%). They scored a touchdown when reaching the red zone on 40% of
their possessions (Season Average:
75.76%). In other words,
KSU did exactly what I suggested
would be the key to this coming weekend’s game: They reduced OU’s red zone efficiency even though they
didn’t deny them the opportunities.
A second takeaway from this breakdown is that KSU also
capitalized on the first point I noted in Tuesday's post.
They kept OU from gaining chunk yardage allowing just one play from
scrimmage to amass more than 25 yards.
KSU forced Oklahoma to have long, sustained drives, and this extra
effort kept OU from posting a large point total.
Another thing KSU did well: Oklahoma was only 50% efficient on first downs, and only
about half of their plays for the entire game were efficient. While OU excelled on 2nd
down at either converting or getting their drive to a third and manageable, KSU
was able to get OU off the field more frequently on third down than they
didn’t. Taking the 71% efficiency
of OU on second down and making that 40% on third down means that KSU was
actually pretty exceptional in third down situations. Notre Dame’s defense needs to take note of this pattern.
Finally, KSU won the position battle. On 5/11 drives, Oklahoma started from
within its own 20 yard line. Their
best starting field position was their own 40. Having 0 turnovers certainly helped KSU in this respect, but
they also played exceptional special teams and constantly put their defense in
a position to force OU to drive the length of the field. All three of Notre Dame’s units need to
take notice of this. It’s a joint
effort to flip the field like that so consistently. KSU was able to win the time of possession battle, and they
held OU to just 15 plays (and 2 possessions) in the 4th quarter with
the game on the line.
When I look at this game, it spells recipe for success, and
it’s a formula Notre Dame can
follow. KSU passed for just 149
yards in the game. They gave up
299 through the air. It wasn’t the
absolute yards that made the difference.
It was taking the extra effort to grind OU’s offense and make them work
on every play. Yep, call me a
believer.
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