The Anatomy of a Win: How KSU Beat OU in Norman

On Tuesday, I presented the case about why Notre Dame might not be doomed to fail against Oklahoma.  I presented the argument that not only has Notre Dame not been susceptible to the big play but that Oklahoma’s efficient offense is not necessarily explosive.  I followed up by suggesting that red zone efficiency will be a much larger factor in the game on Saturday.  I wanted to take at least an anecdotal look at this to see whether the argument holds.  Since the Sooners have lost just once this year, it makes sense to evaluate how KSU’s defense held OU to less than 20 points. 

Below is a drive-by-drive analysis for the Sooners.  We’re all aware of what 3^rd down efficiency means.  It’s the number of times that a team is able to successfully convert a third down into a first down.  For a team like Oklahoma that seems to be more efficient than explosive, the notion of moving the chains is all the more important.  I’ve taken each drive and broken it down play-by-play.  Each play is evaluated for efficiency using some of the measures which the incredibly smart people at Football Outsiders use to measure play-by-play efficiency.  My method is a bit more crude, and yes, sample size is a factor, but efficiency was measured under the following parameters:

1.  Plays deemed efficient will appear in green.
2.  Plays deemed inefficient will appear in red.
3.  Scoring plays are marked in blue and are always considered efficient.
4.  A 1^st down play is deemed efficient if the play gains at least one-third of the remaining yards to go to achieve a first down.
5.  A 2^nd down play is deemed efficient if the play gains at least one-half of the remaining yards to go to achieve a first down.
6.  A 3^rd (or 4^th) down play is deemed efficient if the play gains 100% of the total yards needed to achieve a first down.
7.  A play can be efficient that results in a turnover.  It’s the yardage that we’re looking at.
8.  A punt or field goal is not deemed to be either.
9.  A play that has a penalty can be both efficient and inefficient at the same time.  However, a penalty which happens pre-snap is determined to be inefficient when scored against the offense.

Got it?  No, well, okay then….Let’s get to the drive summaries anyways:

FIRST QUARTER:

Yard Line:	Down:	Run:	Pass:	Penalty:	Other:
Own 9	1		7
Own 16	2	4
Own 20	1	10
Own 30	1	8
Own 38	2		4
Own 42	1	11
Opp  47	1	5
Opp. 42	2		0
Opp. 42	3		14
Opp. 28	1		0
Opp. 28	2		10	9
Opp. 9	1		0
Opp. 9	2	-2
Opp. 11	3		0
Opp. 11	4				FG – 3pts.

Total Yards Gained:  80

Efficient Plays:  9/14 =  64%

Inefficient Plays:  5/14 = 36%

Points:  3

Red Zone?:  Yes

Red Zone TD:  No

Yard Line:	Down:	Run:	Pass:	Penalty:	Other:
Own 18	1		3
Own 21	2	5
Own 26	3	1
Own 27	4				Punt

Total Yards Gained:  9
Efficient Plays:  1/3 = 33%

Inefficient Plays:  2/3 = 67%

Points:  0

Red Zone?:  No

FIRST QUARTER TOTALS:

Plays:  17

Efficient:  59% (10/17)

Inefficient:  41% (7/17)

Points:  3

Red Zone Attempts:  1

Red Zone TD’s:  0

SECOND QUARTER:

Yard Line:	Down:	Run:	Pass:	Penalty:	Other:
Own 16	1			-5
Own 11	1	2
Own 13	2		0
Own 13	3	-11			Lost Fumble

Total Yards Gained:  -15

Efficient Plays:  0/4 = 0%

Inefficient Plays:  4/4 = 100%

Points:  0

Red Zone?  No

Yard Line:	Down:	Run:	Pass:	Penalty:	Other:
Own 40	1	2
Own 42	2		13
Opp. 45	1	1
Opp. 44	2		24
Opp. 20	1		0
Opp. 20	2		11
Opp. 9	1	8
Opp. 1	2	-5			Lost Fumble

Total Yards Gained:  54

Efficient Plays:  4/8 = 50%

Inefficient Plays:  4/8 = 50%

Points:  0

Red Zone?  Yes

Red Zone TD?  No

Yard Line:	Down:	Run:	Pass:	Penalty:	Other:
Own 25	1		3
Own 28	2		0
Own 28	3		19
Own 47	1		14
Opp. 39	1		21
Opp. 18	1		0
Opp. 18	2		1
Opp. 17	3		0
Opp. 17	4				FG – 3 pts.

Total Yards Gained:  58

Efficient Plays:  3/8 = 38%

Inefficient Plays:  5/8 = 62%

Points:  3

Red Zone?  Yes

Red Zone TD?  No

SECOND QUARTER TOTALS:

Plays:  20

Efficient:  35% (7/20)

Inefficient:  65% (13/20)

Points:  3

Red Zone Attempts:  2

Red Zone TD’s:  0

THIRD QUARTER:

Yard Line:	Down:	Run:	Pass:	Penalty:	Other:
Own 25	1	8
Own 33	2	10
Own 43	1		0
Own 43	2	2
Own 45	3		0
Own 45	4			-5
Own 40	4				Punt

Total Yards Gained:  15
Efficient Plays:  2/6 = 33%

Inefficient Plays:  4/6 = 67%

Points:  0

Red Zone? No

Yard Line:	Down:	Run:	Pass:	Penalty:	Other:
Own 12	1		0
Own 12	2		10
Own 22	1	6
Own 28	2		6
Own 34	1		16
50	1		9
Opp. 41	2		27
Opp. 14	1	5
Opp. 9	2		7
Opp. 2	1	-1
Opp. 3	2	3			TD

Total Yards Gained:  88

Efficient Plays:  8/11 = 73%

Inefficient Plays:  3/11 = 27%

Points:  7

Red Zone?  Yes

Red Zone TD?  Yes

Yard Line:	Down:	Run:	Pass:	Penalty:	Other:
Own 4	1	2
Own 6	2		10
Own 16	1		6
Own 22	2		Interception

Total Yards Gained:  18

Efficient Plays:  2/4 = 50%

Inefficient Plays:  2/4 = 50%

Points:  0

Red Zone?  No

THIRD QUARTER TOTALS:           

Plays:  21

Efficient:  57% (12/21)

Inefficient:  43% (9/21)

Points:  7

Red Zone Attempts:  1

Red Zone TD’s:  1

FOURTH QUARTER

Yard Line:	Down:	Run:	Pass:	Penalty:	Other:
Own 35	1	4		-10
Own 29	1		0
Own 29	2		9
Own 38	3		0
Own 38					Punt

Total Yards Gained:  3

Efficient Plays:  2/5 = 40%

Inefficient Plays:  3/5 = 60%

Points:  0

Red Zone?  No

Yard Line:	Down:	Run:	Pass:	Penalty:	Other:
Own 35	1		8
Own 43	2	4
Own 47	1	-8
Own 39	2		9
Own 48	3		17
Opp. 35	1	11
Opp. 24	1		0
Opp. 24	2	4
Opp. 20	3		10
Opp. 10	1		10		TD

Total Yards Gained:  65

Efficient Plays:  7/10 = 70%

Inefficient Plays:  3/10 = 30%

Points:  6 (missed 2 pt. attempt)

Red Zone?  Yes

Red Zone TD?  Yes

FOURTH QUARTER TOTALS:

Plays:  15

Efficient:  60% (9/15)

Inefficient:  40% (6/15)

Points:  7

Red Zone Attempts:  1

Red Zone TD’s:  1

GAME TOTALS:

Plays:  73

Efficient:  52%  (38/73)

Inefficient:  48%  (35/73)

Points:  19

Red Zone Attempts:  5

Red Zone TD’s:  2

Efficiency Passing:  56% (24/43)

Efficiency Running: 56% (15/27)

Efficiency 1^st Down:  50%

Efficiency 2^nd Down:  71%

Efficiency 3^rd Down:  40%

Penalties:  3

Red Zone Attempts:  5

Red Zone Scoring Percentage:  80%

Red Zone TD Percentage:  40%

Turnover Differential: - 3

Longest Pass Play:  27

Longest Rush Play:  11

Plays From Scrimmage 25+:  1 (pass, 27)

OBSERVATIONS:

Let’s get the obvious out of the way.  It cannot be understated how important the +3 turnover differential was in this case.  The largest being a turnover by Oklahoma on the KSU 1 yard line.  That possession for those that have looked at the data from Tuesday is the only time this season that Oklahoma has failed to score some points in the opponent’s red zone.

Oklahoma had 2 touchdowns in this game.  Their two touchdowns coincided with the only two drives of the game where over 70% of their plays on the drive were deemed efficient.  Oklahoma did not score quickly at any point.  Each drive was methodical, and it was only when over 70% of their drive plays were efficient that they could finally break into the Wildcat end zone.

What this game does suggest is that my data from Tuesday could very well be on point.  Oklahoma reached the red zone 5 times.  Their season average is 5.5 times a game.  However, they scored on only 80% of their drives which reached the red zone (Season Average:  96.97%).  They scored a touchdown when reaching the red zone on 40% of their possessions (Season Average:  75.76%).  In other words, KSU did exactly what I suggested would be the key to this coming weekend’s game:  They reduced OU’s red zone efficiency even though they didn’t deny them the opportunities.

A second takeaway from this breakdown is that KSU also capitalized on the first point I noted in Tuesday's post.  They kept OU from gaining chunk yardage allowing just one play from scrimmage to amass more than 25 yards.  KSU forced Oklahoma to have long, sustained drives, and this extra effort kept OU from posting a large point total.

Another thing KSU did well:  Oklahoma was only 50% efficient on first downs, and only about half of their plays for the entire game were efficient.  While OU excelled on 2^nd down at either converting or getting their drive to a third and manageable, KSU was able to get OU off the field more frequently on third down than they didn’t.  Taking the 71% efficiency of OU on second down and making that 40% on third down means that KSU was actually pretty exceptional in third down situations.  Notre Dame’s defense needs to take note of this pattern.

Finally, KSU won the position battle.  On 5/11 drives, Oklahoma started from within its own 20 yard line.  Their best starting field position was their own 40.  Having 0 turnovers certainly helped KSU in this respect, but they also played exceptional special teams and constantly put their defense in a position to force OU to drive the length of the field.  All three of Notre Dame’s units need to take notice of this.  It’s a joint effort to flip the field like that so consistently.  KSU was able to win the time of possession battle, and they held OU to just 15 plays (and 2 possessions) in the 4^th quarter with the game on the line.

When I look at this game, it spells recipe for success, and it’s a formula Notre Dame can follow.  KSU passed for just 149 yards in the game.  They gave up 299 through the air.  It wasn’t the absolute yards that made the difference.  It was taking the extra effort to grind OU’s offense and make them work on every play.  Yep, call me a believer.

Notre Dame Meets Its Maker...Or Does It?

            I’m excited…..No, that’s not the right word.  I get excited for a good meal, the rare nights I can fall asleep early, and when my dog doesn’t steal my seat on the couch when I get up to go to the bathroom.  So, no, excited is not the right word.  I sat here for a few moments trying to think of what the correct word would be, and it hasn’t come.  Needless to say, Saturday night means a lot to me. 

            The experts, though, have me nervous.  Since it became official that the Catholics trump the Mormons for another year last Saturday evening and this week’s ND/Oklahoma game became a battle of top 10 teams, all I’ve heard is why the Irish are going to get slaughtered.  The refrains from the experts are typical:  Notre Dame hasn’t played anyone yet (aside:  Yet they love Alabama and Oregon???  Who exactly have those guys played?), our offense stinks (no aside, we haven’t been great), and Oklahoma’s the first real offense we’ve played, and they’re going to take the top off of us.  It’s tough to ignore.  These same comments have been echoed everywhere.  When our best line of media defense is an octogenarian with a lisp and a bias so pungent that I’m convinced I now own a 4D television (note:  I don’t even own a 3D television), my degree of anxiety increases. 

            There are many, many good websites that will provide a breakdown of the game.  They’ll talk about the key match-ups individually, the psychology, Big Game Bob, Big Game Bob at home, ND’s unsettled QB situation, why a Sooner would beat an Irishman in a drinking contest, and who wears a visor better: BK versus Bob, I’m not going to engage in that.  We (pronounced: “me’) here at JLD have decided to look at the statistics to find out exactly what type of butt kicking I should expect on Saturday. 

            So, without further unnecessary lead-in, let’s explore some statistical areas that seem important to this match-up:

1.  OKLAHOMA’S OFFENSE IS GOING TO TORCH ND’S UNTESTED DEFENSE:

            I’ve found this one to be the most troubling.  Even granting that the Sooners are better than some of the other offenses we’ve faced, what data do we have to back up the notion that ND will inevitably be lit up?  Notre Dame’s points allowed per game is second in the nation.  We’ve yet to allow a rushing touchdown, and each of these points have been espoused by anyone feigning to cover college football.  The prevailing thought among the experts is that we’re susceptible to the big play and OU will capitalize, but is that true?  First, let’s look just at long plays from scrimmage allowed by ND on a game-by-game basis.  For purposes of this chart, I’m defining a long play as 25 yards or more from scrimmage on any given play.  These are the “chunk” yardage plays Oklahoma is expected to get:

Table 1:

Notre Dame Defense:  Plays of 25+ Yards/TD’s Allowed 10+ Yards

Opponent:	Rushes 25+ Yards:	Passes 25+ Yards:	TD’s 10+ Yards:
Navy	1 (25)	3 (41, 38, 25)	1 (pass, 25)
Purdue	0	1 (27)	1 (pass 15)
Michigan State	0	0	0
Michigan	1 (31)	0	0
Miami	0	2 (28, 26)	0
Stanford	0	0	0
BYU	0	0	0
TOTALS:	2 (25, 31)	6 (41, 38, 28, 27, 26, 25)	2 (Pass; 25, 15)

·      Number in parentheses indicates number of yards gained

Even a quick look indicates that Notre Dame has not been susceptible to the big play this season.  Navy accounts for exactly half of all plays 25+ yards that ND has allowed.  That game, by the way, Notre Dame won 52-10.  We can summarize as follows:

Longest Rushing Play of the Year:  31 yards (Michigan).  Notre Dame is tied for 9^th in the nation with the longest run surrendered being somewhere between 30-40 yards.

Longest Passing Play of the Year:  41 yards (Navy).  Notre Dame is 2^nd in the nation having allowed only 2 passing plays over 30 yards.  The only team above them, LSU (1 play allowed), permitted that pass to go more than 80 yards.  ND is tied with 8 other teams for first in the nation having allowed just 1 passing play of 40 or more yards. 

Since the Dublin game, Michigan’s 31 yard rush is the only 30+ yard play that the Notre Dame defense has surrendered.

The longest touchdown surrendered:  25 yards.  Oklahoma’s got their work cut out for them if they intend to take ND’s head off.

Much of the conversation has been about how Oklahoma possesses a more potent vertical passing game than the Irish have experienced.  The numbers really don’t back this up.  In FBS competition, OU ranks 89^th in passing plays going for more than 20 yards.  OU’s notched 16 such plays in  5 games (Game Average:  3.2 passes per game).  Notre Dame has notched 25 such plays in 7 games (Game Average:  3.57 passes per game).  For those who may be numbers impaired, Notre Dame averages more passing plays of 20+ yards a game than Oklahoma in FBS competition.  So, do you think ND has a great vertical passing game?  Yeah, neither do I…

Some of the claims about OU’s potent offense also involve their running game and with good reason.  JUCO transfer Damien Williams is averaging 7.46 yards a carry.  Notre Dame’s already gone up against some formidable running backs:  Stepfan Taylor, Le’Veon Bell, and ummm…Navy’s primary means of attack.  While we could address Notre Dame’s rush defense (Top 25 by all statistical measures), the main argument for Oklahoma has been their big play ability.  In terms of absolute numbers, neither Notre Dame nor Oklahoma have been among the elite in terms of big plays.  Let’s compare the two on a per game basis. 

Table 2:

Notre Dame/Oklahoma Plays of 10+ Yards from Scrimmage (FBS Only)

Team:	Plays 10+	Plays 20+	Plays 30+	% of 10+ going 20+	% of 20+ going 30+
ND	13.14	5.29	1.86	14.13	40.22
OU	19	4.4	2	10.53	23.16

            Absolute numbers didn’t make sense in the illustration above given that ND’s played 2 more FBS games than OU.  However, if we do look at absolute numbers as opposed to game averages, Oklahoma’s had 95 plays from scrimmage gaining at least 10 yards.  Notre Dame’s had 92.  Oklahoma’s had 22 plays go for at least 20 yards, 16 of which we previously established were passing plays.  That means that Oklahoma has exactly 6 rushes of 20+ yards.  Notre Dame?  12.  While Oklahoma averages an impressive 6 more plays a game of 10+ yards than the Fighting BK’s, Notre Dame is actually the more likely of the two to have a chunk play of 20-30 yards, and they’re quite similar in terms of 30+ yard plays.  While that 10+ yard play per game difference OU supports is important to moving the chains, it does not necessarily equate to touchdowns.  The next sub-set of statistics really elaborate on the story of why OU appears to be more potent offensively than ND and why there is such a drastic scoring difference.

2.  THE RED ZONE:  BATTLE OF THE UNSTOPPALBE FORCE VS. THE IMMOVEABLE OBJECT:

Despite the lack of difference in big play ability to this point, there has been a distinct and not-so-subtle difference in scoring between ND and Oklahoma.  Blame it on the Big 12 defenses.  Blame it on a difference in quarterback play.  Blame it on the rain.  What might be the reason for this distinct difference?  There’s almost no question that the answer lies in red zone efficiency.

Table 3:

Offensive Red Zone Efficiency Numbers

Team:	Attempts Per Game:	Scoring Percentage:	Touchdown Percentage:
ND	4.86	76.47 (89th)	47.06 (106th)
OU	5.5	96.97 (T-1st)	75.76 (9th)

·      Number in parentheses represents national ranking in category

Not only does Oklahoma get to the red zone a little more frequently than Notre Dame, but they are starkly more efficient once they enter that zone.  For two teams that seem to have similar “big play” potential, it’s Oklahoma’s dominance in red zone offense that has led to so many more scores.  Despite the expert analysis, if you combine Oklahoma’s lack of a substantial number of big plays combined with their red zone efficiency, you paint the picture of an effective, not explosive offense. I’m not trying to sell the Sooners short.  They’re clearly a devastating offense but not in the manner that the experts have painted them.  There is, however, the other side to the equation.   Notre Dame’s allowed exactly 2 touchdowns of more than 10 yards and only 1 touchdown from outside the red zone, meaning, Notre Dame’s red zone defense will  play a central part in the scoring results on Saturday.

Table 4:

Defensive Red Zone Efficiency Numbers

Team:	Attempts Per Game:	Scoring Percentage:	Touchdown Percentage:
ND	2.71	52.63 (3rd)	21.05 (1st)
OU	2.2	72.73 (20th)	54.55 (45th)

·      Number in parentheses represents national ranking in category

Notre Dame’s defense has been astonishingly good at not allowing the touchdown when an offense makes its way to the red zone.  Only 4 times in 19 total attempts has a team which reached Notre Dame’s 20 yard line found a way to make it that final bit and notch a touchdown.  The scoring percentage has certainly been aided by missed field goals (as opposed to blocks),  but the fact remains:  As good as Oklahoma has been at scoring once in the red zone, Notre Dame has been every bit as good at preventing scoring.  Call it luck.  Call it inspiration.  Call it genius. 

The lynch pin of Notre Dame’s defensive strategy this year has been forcing teams to work for every last yard (See:  The Stanford game, regardless of your interpretation of the final play).  They don’t allow big plays, and much like a Catholic on his wedding night, they stiffen in the red zone. 

All of this is not to suggest or predict that Notre Dame will win on Saturday night.  Norman, OK is the most formidable city named Norman I’m aware of.  Moreover, Oklahoma is a very, very good team that many predicted might make the National Title Game this year.  However, before Brian Kelly just turns the plane around and forfeits, perhaps these numbers can provide a concrete reason that this is not a runaway in the making.  Sure, people will point to the home field advantage (it’s a big one), the quarterback differential (it’s a big one), or the battle for turnover supremacy (it’s always, regardless of opponent, a big one).  But for those thinking that OU is an offensive juggernaut destined to rip out the heart of ND Nation, let me encourage you to read the numbers above, take a deep breath, and remember that Las Vegas does not determine the outcome of (most) sporting events. 

My prediction:  Whichever team is more efficient in the red zone will win.  This game will not be decided by the big plays everyone is expecting to rain down upon Notre Dame on Saturday night.

- Moons