You gotta
win the BIG games. Michigan was the biggest game of the season…until they
weren’t. Then, it was the Shamrock Series. You gotta beat Purdue and handle
your business. That’s all fine and dandy, but now Stanford is the biggest game to date. College football’s
regular season is by far the best sport has to offer. The week-to-week
importance is unparalleled and the selective amnesia it induces in fan bases is
impressive. The question is, what do individual games mean to a season? Is
there a corollary between beating a specific opponent and what that means to
the season at large?
For this
week’s deep dive, that was the question we looked to answer. By we, I of course
mean myself and esteemed numbers/spreadsheet colleague and Twitter compatriot
(noted Dillon alumni) @andrewwinn. I “sat” down and discussed some of the
findings on this week’s edition of ND Fan Radio with hosts @IrishTightness and
Air McFly @ndfanradio (I use twitter handles because no one wants to know our
real names). If you missed it, you can find it on Blog Talk Radio here
or if you’re like me and like to listen to them on the go, the replay is
available on iTunes.
These
pieces will be a feature following my appearances and will give you the
fan/listener an opportunity to see the numbers and digest in a non-auditory
format. Please let me know if you have questions by hitting me up on the
Twitter as well at @IrishMoonJ.
We wanted
to take a cross-section of teams that normally appear on Notre Dame’s schedule.
We looked at how the head to head match-up from some of our most historic and
frequently played games (Navy, Purdue, Stanford, Michigan State, USC, and
Michigan) have played out and where that compared to how the team faired at
season’s end. Additionally, given the match-up announcements that known pirate
Captain Jack Swarbrick has made in the past few months, we also generated a
combined chart for previous match-ups with Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, and
Texas A&M.
In each
chart, the row in yellow will show you the all-time head to head record and
Notre Dame’s win percentage in that head to head match-up. The overall win
percentage is the cumulative wins/losses for seasons in which Notre Dame played
that specific opponent. Change tells you whether Notre Dame did better or worse
on average versus that specific
opponent. Then, we get into the fun stuff. The remaining rows break down how the team did at season’s end based
on the result/criteria of that specific match-up. So, you’ll see rows for how
the team faired in seasons where Notre Dame won/lost/played at home/road versus
the opponent and how the team did overall. I’ll provide a few comments on each
table, but the numbers are here for you to enjoy, respond, and react to. The
rows in red point out where the team did the worst compared to cumulative
season average and the rows in green show the games we might call a
“springboard” to greater things at the end of season.
Navy
Notre
Dame’s played Navy more frequently than any other opponent. They’ve beat Navy
more than any other opponent. Their win percentage was the best against Navy
compared to any of the opponents we looked at. Not surprisingly then, Notre
Dame’s defeated Navy in head to head match-ups at an even greater clip than
their overall win percentage in those years. Nothing sticks out tremendously
about the positive wins. I just don’t think we can normally (and certainly in
the past several decades) construe a Navy win as a springboard to future
success. However, a Navy loss is a plank to the bottom of the ocean. Given a
program as successful as Notre Dame has been consistently through the years, there
were very few scenarios reviewed where a loss against a specific opponent
resulted in a cumulative win percentage below 50%....Navy was one of them. I
asked IrishTightness and Air McFly this question on the radio, and they both nailed
it immediately. No match-up showed a greater discrepancy between
winning and losing a head to head than Navy, but that’s because seasons in
which Notre Dame loses to Navy are a harbinger of death for just how bad the
season’s been. If you’ve been in the stands for a home loss to Navy, my
condolences on that game and season.
WIN:
|
LOSS:
|
TIE:
|
WIN %
|
OVERALL WIN %
|
DIFF:
|
|
H2H:
|
74
|
12
|
1
|
85.1%
|
69.6%
|
15.4%
|
WON:
|
588
|
196
|
21
|
73.0%
|
69.6%
|
3.4%
|
LOST:
|
58
|
63
|
2
|
47.2%
|
69.6%
|
-22.5%
|
HOME W:
|
216
|
96
|
5
|
68.1%
|
69.6%
|
-1.5%
|
HOME L:
|
23
|
30
|
0
|
43.4%
|
69.6%
|
-26.2%
|
NEUTR W:
|
372
|
100
|
16
|
76.2%
|
69.6%
|
6.6%
|
NEUTR L:
|
35
|
33
|
2
|
50.0%
|
69.6%
|
-19.6%
|
HOME:
|
239
|
126
|
5
|
64.6%
|
69.6%
|
-5.0%
|
NEUTRAL:
|
414
|
135
|
19
|
72.9%
|
69.6%
|
3.3%
|
Purdue
Purdue’s
another top 3 all-time most played match-up, and Notre Dame’s results against
Purdue typically match the overall win percentage. No head to head match-up
more closely resembled the cumulative winning percentage of Notre Dame in those
seasons than Purdue. Losses were more devastating than wins were a positive,
but fortunately losses happened only half as frequently. In seasons in which
Notre Dame played Purdue at Purdue, that match-up showed the biggest swings.
The team did best (just slightly better than overall winning) getting a win at
Purdue whereas in seasons where Notre Dame lost at Purdude, the team barely
finished above .500. My gut take: The Purdue game likely accurately reflects a
chance for a road win against a Big 5 Conference opponent without facing a
top-tier team. It historically appears to be a decent measure of whether ND’s
just cleaning up at home and versus the weakest opponents on their schedule or
whether there’s some true quality to the product on the field.
WIN:
|
LOSS:
|
TIE:
|
WIN %
|
OVERALL WIN %
|
DIFF:
|
|
H2H:
|
58
|
26
|
2
|
67.4%
|
69.4%
|
-1.9%
|
WON:
|
480
|
131
|
15
|
76.7%
|
69.4%
|
7.3%
|
LOST:
|
142
|
122
|
5
|
52.8%
|
69.4%
|
-16.6%
|
HOME W:
|
247
|
68
|
9
|
76.2%
|
69.4%
|
6.9%
|
HOME L:
|
65
|
52
|
3
|
54.2%
|
69.4%
|
-15.2%
|
AWAY W:
|
229
|
63
|
6
|
76.8%
|
69.4%
|
7.5%
|
AWAY L:
|
77
|
70
|
2
|
51.7%
|
69.4%
|
-17.7%
|
HOME:
|
312
|
120
|
12
|
70.3%
|
69.4%
|
0.9%
|
AWAY:
|
318
|
138
|
10
|
68.2%
|
69.4%
|
-1.1%
|
Stanford
Stanford,
of course, is the task at hand. You’ll see a trend with both Stanford and
Michigan given the relative newness of the season-after-season rivalry and
Notre Dame’s program not being as great as it was in the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s,
that the overall win percentage for the teams was slightly lower than some of the other opponents. The swing in win
percentage is pretty close to indicative that the difference in the season was
in fact the outcome of the Stanford match-up. Of course, Notre Dame has been a
better team for beating Stanford. What I found most interesting: The
mere fact that Notre Dame is playing Stanford at home has historically meant
Notre Dame won close to 75% of their games. In fact, playing Stanford
at home had a better positive effect than a win regardless of location.
WIN:
|
LOSS:
|
TIE:
|
WIN %
|
OVERALL WIN %
|
DIFF:
|
|
H2H:
|
18
|
10
|
0
|
64.3%
|
67.3%
|
-3.0%
|
WON:
|
157
|
56
|
3
|
72.7%
|
67.3%
|
5.4%
|
LOST:
|
69
|
50
|
1
|
57.5%
|
67.3%
|
-9.8%
|
HOME W:
|
97
|
32
|
3
|
73.5%
|
67.3%
|
6.2%
|
HOME L:
|
27
|
9
|
1
|
73.0%
|
67.3%
|
5.7%
|
AWAY W:
|
50
|
24
|
0
|
67.6%
|
67.3%
|
0.3%
|
AWAY L:
|
42
|
41
|
0
|
50.6%
|
67.3%
|
-16.7%
|
HOME:
|
124
|
41
|
4
|
73.4%
|
67.3%
|
6.1%
|
AWAY:
|
92
|
65
|
0
|
58.6%
|
67.3%
|
-8.7%
|
Michigan State
Notre Dame
didn’t play Sparty this year, and given the strength of this year’s MSU team,
maybe that’s a good thing. Particularly if it was at home where we see losses
to Sparty at home have been some of the most devastating of those reviewed.
Losing to Michigan State at home was the only other match-up sub class besides
losses to Navy that historically have meant the team finished under .500. I
won’t spend too much more time on this match-up since we’re not playing them
this year.
WIN:
|
LOSS:
|
TIE:
|
WIN %
|
OVERALL WIN %
|
DIFF:
|
|
H2H:
|
48
|
28
|
1
|
62.3%
|
68.9%
|
-6.5%
|
WON:
|
395
|
109
|
12
|
76.6%
|
68.9%
|
7.7%
|
LOST:
|
162
|
126
|
8
|
54.7%
|
68.9%
|
-14.1%
|
HOME W:
|
225
|
64
|
8
|
75.8%
|
68.9%
|
6.9%
|
HOME L:
|
69
|
73
|
2
|
47.9%
|
68.9%
|
-20.9%
|
AWAY W:
|
170
|
45
|
4
|
77.6%
|
68.9%
|
8.8%
|
AWAY L:
|
93
|
53
|
6
|
61.2%
|
68.9%
|
-7.7%
|
HOME:
|
282
|
133
|
9
|
66.5%
|
68.9%
|
-2.3%
|
AWAY:
|
340
|
123
|
13
|
71.4%
|
68.9%
|
2.6%
|
Texas/Georgia/Ohio
State/Texas A&M Combined
Here are
some of the other upcoming match-ups that Cap’n Jack added to the schedule in
recent months/years. There’s not a ton of history with any of these match-ups
and over a third came in situations where Notre Dame played one of these teams
in a bowl game. As a result, the overall win percentage of these Notre Dame
teams was better than any other group looked at. Of course, it also meant that
the caliber of opponent was on average better. Playing one of these teams has
resulted in tough, hard fought match-ups. When Notre Dame has gone into a
neutral site and defeated one of these guys though, the team’s won nearly 90%
of their games. Sadly, Cap’n Jack didn’t have my numbers in front of him to
schedule all these match-ups off the reservoir.
WIN:
|
LOSS:
|
TIE:
|
WIN %
|
OVERALL WIN %
|
DIFF:
|
|
H2H:
|
13
|
8
|
0
|
61.9%
|
76.5%
|
-14.6%
|
WON:
|
111
|
20
|
5
|
81.6%
|
76.5%
|
5.1%
|
LOST:
|
62
|
26
|
2
|
68.9%
|
76.5%
|
-7.7%
|
HOME W:
|
33
|
9
|
1
|
76.7%
|
76.5%
|
0.2%
|
HOME L:
|
14
|
6
|
0
|
70.0%
|
76.5%
|
-6.5%
|
AWAY W:
|
36
|
7
|
3
|
78.3%
|
76.5%
|
1.7%
|
AWAY L:
|
14
|
9
|
0
|
60.9%
|
76.5%
|
-15.7%
|
HOME:
|
47
|
15
|
1
|
74.6%
|
76.5%
|
-1.9%
|
AWAY:
|
50
|
16
|
3
|
72.5%
|
76.5%
|
-4.1%
|
NEUTR:
|
76
|
15
|
3
|
80.9%
|
76.5%
|
4.3%
|
NEUTR W:
|
42
|
4
|
1
|
89.4%
|
76.5%
|
12.8%
|
NEUTR L:
|
34
|
11
|
2
|
72.3%
|
76.5%
|
-4.2%
|
USC
Notre
Dame’s got the advantage versus our hated rival, but regardless of year, this
game was more likely to be one of ND’s losses than any except that team from
the Mitten State. Nothing really stuck out in terms of the trends. It’s not
good to lose at home. An away win versus USC meant the caliber of the team was
better. Duh. The discrepancy in win percentage in seasons where ND defeated USC
versus seasons where ND lost to USC was the smallest of any of the teams
reviewed. It speaks to how even the match-up has been and the fact that USC has
consistently been one of the most difficult match-ups on the schedule. Even if
seasons where Notre Dame is good, USC is never a given.
WIN:
|
LOSS:
|
TIE:
|
WIN %
|
OVERALL WIN %
|
DIFF:
|
|
H2H:
|
45
|
35
|
5
|
52.9%
|
69.5%
|
-16.6%
|
WON:
|
353
|
116
|
13
|
73.2%
|
69.5%
|
3.7%
|
LOST:
|
249
|
130
|
5
|
64.8%
|
69.5%
|
-4.7%
|
HOME W:
|
184
|
69
|
6
|
71.0%
|
69.5%
|
1.5%
|
HOME L:
|
90
|
62
|
2
|
58.4%
|
69.5%
|
-11.1%
|
AWAY W:
|
153
|
46
|
6
|
74.6%
|
69.5%
|
5.1%
|
AWAY L:
|
159
|
68
|
3
|
69.1%
|
69.5%
|
-0.4%
|
HOME:
|
282
|
133
|
9
|
66.5%
|
69.5%
|
-3.0%
|
AWAY:
|
340
|
123
|
13
|
71.4%
|
69.5%
|
1.9%
|
Michigan
Finally, we
have scUM. and I present these without much comment because I don’t speak about
dumpster fires, and that’s what Michigan is right now. I will note: In seasons
where ND defeats Michigan, Notre Dame’s won 77% of their games. That one’s
already checked off the list this season.
WIN:
|
LOSS:
|
TIE:
|
WIN %
|
OVERALL WIN %
|
DIFF:
|
|
H2H:
|
17
|
24
|
1
|
40.5%
|
66.3%
|
-25.8%
|
WON:
|
147
|
42
|
2
|
77.0%
|
66.3%
|
10.7%
|
LOST:
|
140
|
99
|
6
|
57.1%
|
66.3%
|
-9.2%
|
HOME W:
|
84
|
28
|
1
|
74.3%
|
66.3%
|
8.0%
|
HOME L:
|
57
|
30
|
4
|
62.6%
|
66.3%
|
-3.7%
|
AWAY W:
|
63
|
14
|
1
|
80.8%
|
66.3%
|
14.5%
|
AWAY L:
|
87
|
68
|
2
|
55.4%
|
66.3%
|
-10.9%
|
HOME:
|
141
|
58
|
5
|
69.1%
|
66.3%
|
2.8%
|
AWAY:
|
150
|
82
|
3
|
63.8%
|
66.3%
|
-2.5%
|
- Moons
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