The Path to the Mant-eisman*

Mmm…..I love me some Manti Te’o.  I could probably just stop there as my lead-in to this article, but I won’t.  In what’s been a storybook year (to this point) for those of us who have enjoyed the communal fermented Kool-Aid of this Notre Dame season, aside from the obvious victories, has been the story of Manti Te’o.  He’s our inspirational team leader, the Mormon Tim Tebow, and a beacon of pride for the Notre Dame administration.  I’ve heard (without actually seeing) that the Golden Dome has been lit up at zero cost to the university since the beginning of the season by Jack Swarbrick’s and Father Jenkins’ collective pride in what Te’o represents for the university.

The “storybook” finish involves a Notre Dame National Championship and a Heisman for Te’o.  It might be more of a fairy tale given the unlikely scenario of Te’o finding a way to overcome the Heisman bias towards offensive players, but dreamers dream….that’s what they do….their title DEMANDS it.  As the clock turns from October to November, a look at the chances of a “Mant-eisman” seems to be the order of business.

There’s no question that the Heisman trophy since its inception has been an offensive award.  There are only two players that have even played significant minutes on defense and managed to break through as the winner of college football’s greatest individual honor:  Leon Hart (Notre Dame, 1949), and Charles Woodson (Michigan, 1997).  Both of those guys played significant offensive/special teams minutes as well.  Unfortunately for Notre Dame’s most recent golden child, he will not have the benefit of such minutes. 

Since 2000, the Heisman trophy has become, primarily, an award handed out to the best quarterback on the best team.  Only 2 non-quarterbacks have managed to win the award:  Reggie Bush (RB, 2005)(vacated for being a professional) and Mark Ingram (RB,  2009).  I suppose the argument could be made that Tim Tebow was more running back than quarterback as well, but I’m fearful of the wrath of Tebow disciples for suggesting that their chosen son cannot play quarterback.  So I’ll leave that as is.  With that as the backdrop, let’s take a quick glance at whether any defensive players have been able to get their name into consideration since this quarterback trend commenced in 2000:

Defensive Finishers in Heisman Balloting Since 2000:

2000:  None

2001:  Roy Williams (7); Dwight Freeney (9); Julius Peppers (10) – combined pooling of points would not have gotten Williams higher than 7^th. 6^th Randall-El.

2002:  None

2003:  None

2004:  None

2005:  Vacated *(Reggie Bush year)

2006:  None

2007:  Glen Dorsey (9); Chris Long (10) – Combined pooling would not have gotten Dorsey higher than 9^th.  8^th Kevin Smith.

2008:  Rey Maualuga (9)

2009:  Ndamukong Suh (4)

2010:  None

2011:  Tyrann Mathieu (5)

As is plainly obvious by this list, it’s sparse and depressing for Te’o’s prospects.  The highest finish for a defensive player since 2000?  Ndamukong Suh’s 4^th place finish in 2009.  The greatest number of defensive players to make the top of voting?  2001, where 3 players managed to break the top 10.  If there’s anything to hang our collective domered hopes upon it’s that since 2007, a defensive player has finished in the top 10 of voting 4 out of 5 years.  The previous six years had only one season where defensive players received any consideration.  Perhaps the voters are turning ever so slightly to the idea that teams play both offense and defense.

There is a (somewhat flawed) logic to why offensive players so frequently win.  The Heisman tends to come down to playmaking, and by playmaking, I do mean things that can show up on a stat sheet.  Defensive statistics are not as impressive as yards gained and touchdowns to begin with, but more importantly, they are inherently reactionary in nature.  A defense (and therefore the great individual player) are always somewhat at the mercy of what an offense chooses to do from a gameplan standpoint.  If a team has a great cornerback, an offense can avoid letting him be the difference maker by throwing to the other side of the field.  Same thing holds true for sack artists.  Don’t like the idea of Suh coming through the line at you?  Run it away from him.  If there’s one thing going for Te’o, it’s that as a middle linebacker, it’s tougher to avoid him…and the evidence is pretty good that teams have not been able to do so.

A comparison of Te’o’s numbers (thus far) to the other defensive players to reach the top 10 helps elaborate on this:

STATISTICS FOR DEFENSIVE PLAYERS FINISHING IN TOP 10 SINCE 2000:

Name:	T:	TFL	Sacks	FF	FR	INT:	TD’s:
Williams, R.	*	*	*	*	2	5	1
Peppers, J.	63	19	9.5	*	0	3	0
Freeney, D.	*	25.5	17.5	*	*	*	*
Dorsey, G.	69	12.5	7	1	0	0	0
Long, C.	79	19.0	14.0	2	0	1	0
Maualuga, R.	79	2.5	0	0	0	2	1
Suh, N.	85	20.5	12	1	0	1	0
Mathieu, T.	76	7.5	1.5	6	4	2	4
Te’o, M.**	80	4.5	1.0	0	1	5	0

*       Official statistics not available prior to 2005.  Data retrieved from multiple sources and should be deemed unofficial for any season prior to 2005.

**   #’s represent season to date through games played 10/27/12.

Te’o could be a unique defensive case for several reasons.  The only other linebacker to achieve his prominence on the biggest stage is Rey Maualuga who Te'o will likely surpass in most or all of the counting categories. Generally, the defensive players to get on the Heisman radar have been sack specialists.  Sack specialists tend to be down linemen who then lack page stats in every other category.  By the time Heisman voting becomes official, there is no question that Te’o will have by far the greatest number of tackles for any player in the conversation.  That could be highly important.  While individual tackle numbers are difficult to find prior to 2005, tackles is one of those stats that voters can look at and have some appreciation for.  No, Te’o will not have the tackles for loss or sacks of some of the others, but it’s possible that Te’o will be the best in raw statistics in terms of tackles and interceptions.  His resume among defensive players will likely be the most diverse and robust.  They’ll be the type of numbers that Heisman voters can latch onto. 

With all of this said, let’s look at the 5 things I think need to happen in order for Te’o to do the unthinkable and be the first defensive player to win the Heisman:

1.  Colin Klein and Kansas State Must Lose:

Make no mistake about it, the Heisman is a quarterback award, and there is a front-runner:  Colin Klein.  When the most recent BCS Standings were released this past Sunday, the Kansas State Wildcats were #2 and in the catbird seat. (side note:  does anyone know where that term derives from?  Side side note:  Yes, I’m aware I could probably just Google it myself).  Optimus Klein is the clear leader, and things must change on the national landscape for Te’o to have a chance.  Since 2000, quarterbacks have won 10/11 of the recognized Heisman ballots.  It’s not just a matter of being a quarterback, it’s also a matter of being relevant to who wins the National Championship.  Check out the following chart:

HEISMAN WINNERS SINCE 2000:  BCS PERFORMANCE

Year:	Name:	Position:	National Title Appearance?	Won?	BCS?
2000	Weinke, C.	QB	Yes	No	Yes
2001	Crouch, E.	QB	Yes	No	Yes
2002	Palmer, C.	QB	No	-	Yes
2003	White, J.	QB	Yes	No	Yes
2004	Leinhart, M.	QB	Yes	Yes	Yes
2006	Smith, T.	QB	Yes	No	Yes
2007	Tebow, T.	QB	No	-	No
2008	Bradford, S.	QB	Yes	No	Yes
2009	Ingram, M.	RB	Yes	Yes	Yes
2010	Newton, C.	QB	Yes	Yes	Yes
2011	Griffin, R.	QB	No	-	No

The chart illustrates that playing in the National Title game is pretty indicative of success in winning the Heisman.  Only three times has the Heisman winner not ended up in the National Title game.  You don’t need to win it (as the Heisman is announced following the BCS selections but prior to the game), but being there is very important. 

Despite Klein’s brilliance, he is not Carson Palmer, Tim Tebow, or Robert Griffin III.  Klein’s resume is built upon KSU being undefeated and the importance of his role in the individual victories.  An undefeated Kansas State, going to the National Championship, will be a near automatic victory for Klein.  While Klein is uniquely situated among the current Heisman contenders to absorb a team loss (particularly if it occurs before the Big 12 Championship or in a loss in that game should Klein still perform well), a failure by the Wildcats at any stage will open the door for Te’o. 

2.  Notre Dame Must Remain Undefeated Going Into Bowl Season:

Equally important to Kansas State losing is Notre Dame remaining undefeated.  Again, as the chart above reflects, being involved in the National Title game is incredibly important.  For a defensive player, I think it’s imperative.  Both of the previous “defensive” winners of the Heisman were a part of national title squads.  Hart in ’49 and Woodson in ’97 each at least shared in a national title. 

No, an undefeated Notre Dame is not guaranteed a spot in the title game.  A lot of things need to shake out in that respect,   However, a Notre Dame team that loses its opportunity to be involved in that discussion will doom Te’o’s credentials.  If I’m really being honest, things absolutely must shake out well for Notre Dame on that front too.  They need to be in the title game via the selection process to keep Te’o’s hopes alive.  Anything short of that likely dooms his candidacy.

One primary advantage for Te’o is the national exposure of Notre Dame.  Like it, hate it, it doesn’t matter.  The notion of ND returning to a National Title game, particularly on the strength of the defense led by Te’o, is what can keep his name around long enough to get him into the discussion.  Notre Dame being back in the national title picture is much bigger than the Honey Badger last season or any of the other defensive candidates from the past.  Is it unfair to other great players?  Probably.  Does is have a potential impact on Heisman voters?  Absolutely.

3.  Te’o Must Have a Big Game Versus Southern California:

Assuming ND goes into that game undefeated as emphasized by point #2, it’s only slightly less important that Te’o show up in a big way in the USC game.  Last impressions mean a lot, and no more so than for Te’o.  Is it possible to win without playing on conference championship weekend? Absolutely.  RG III did it just last year.  However, the span of days involved from ND’s last game on Thanksgiving weekend until the Heisman winner is announced acts as a significant hurdle to Te’o’s candidacy.

As difficult as it is to imagine a defensive player winning the award, it’s even more unlikely that Te’o can have not added to his candidacy for a month if he intends to win. 

Even were Colin Klein to lose prior to conference championship week, he’d get a shot to redeem himself after Te’o had finished his season.  Additionally, barring tremendous upsets, Te’o’s other primary challengers beyond Klein (i.e. A.J. McCarron and the OU backfield) all are on track to play that weekend.  In the current climate, anything short of a great performance against USC would likely leave too many chances and too much time for some offensive player to come up and swoop the award away.

Finally, there’s the issue of having a “Heisman Moment.”  When I’ve brought this up with a couple of friends in recent weeks (whom I shall call TB and JD), the issue of a “Heisman Moment” came from both of their tongues.  My gut instinct was that Oklahoma could be that moment for Te’o, but let’s be fair:  As great as that performance was, it’ll be forgotten by the end of November.  However, Te’o’s options could be expanded by the time of the USC game.  A sack/interception in a close game to seal the win or a touchdown of some sort in a blow out victory to secure an undefeated regular season could all be what the doctor ordered to leave a lasting impression upon the voters.

4.  Keep the National Title Picture Closed:

Right now, there are four teams with an inside track to the national title game:  1) Alabama, 2) Kansas State, 3) Notre Dame, 4) Oregon.  So long as the national title picture remains among those four, it’s fairly easy to redact down the list of individuals who could play in a national title game and have the credentials for a Heisman:  1) A.J. McCarron, 2) Colin Klein, 3) Manti Te’o, and 4) the Oregon backfield. 

There is no RG III, Tim Tebow, or Carson Palmer that is playing at such a high level despite team performance that they can get their name into the mix.  Sorry Geno Smith, that ship has sailed.  Same thing for you E.J. Manuel.  Even  McCarron hasn’t done enough absent Alabama’s team dominance to get himself high enough on the ladder.  Oregon’s backfield splits the importance of any indvidual member, their offensive scheme is deemed an exercise in team explosiveness, and the Pac-12 isn’t considered strong enough to keep them from getting consideration.  The conversation can fairly reliably be reduced to Klein and Te’o for the time being.  For four weeks to be remaining and a defensive player be down to the final bout is amazing.

There is a caveat.  If it ends up being a crazy month of the regular season (not unheard of), then the frontrunners open themselves up to considerable scrutiny.  Losses by KSU and ND might propel McCarron into that top slot.  McCarron has yet to throw an interception this year, and he is much better than previous Alabama quarterbacks to command a national championship contender.  Same holds true for one of the Oregon backfield members.  Worse yet is if the conversation gets opened back up and someone like E.J. Manuel can get their name back up into the "possible" category.  If some bad things happen to the top teams, and then Manuel explodes versus the Florida Gators as well as in the ACC game, he can thrust himself back into the conversation.

Keeping the number of relevant national championship teams to a minimum increases the likelihood of success for Te’o.  In a year without a dominant offensive player on the front lines of the national title picture, he puts himself in the best scenario to win.  Opening that debate back up about who is relevant might prove to be as costly as a Colin Klein going undefeated in the regular season.

5.  Keep the Personal Narrative Relevant:

Chris Weinke’s failed baseball career followed by a return to football prominence; Jason White’s battle with injuries; Tim Tebow’s faith;  Mark Ingram’s personal life strife….Peronsal narrative can matter.  Albeit the least important of the 5 things mentioned, Te’o’s narrative can make a difference:

Mormon at the nation’s most prominent Catholic institution.  Sure fire 1^st round pick who forgoes the limelight of the NFL to complete his college education.  Team captain and emotional leader.  The personal loss of a relative and a girlfriend in the same week followed immediately by a huge primetime game performance.  The embodiment of the student-athlete at a forerunner of higher education.  And, by the way, the guy’s pretty good at football too.

God forbid anything negative come out about Te’o, but such a scandal would kill him.  The Heisman has seen at least a few fiascos in recent years having to vacate Bush’s 2005 victory and dealing with the aftermath of Tyrann Mathieu barely being able to stay out of custody in recent months.  A compelling, positive, dare I say, inspirational personal story has the ability to sway a few voters in a close ballot. 

No, Manti Te’o’s story won’t win him the Heisman, but it doesn’t hurt him either.  Were anything to occur to leave the outcome in doubt, then Te’o’s story becomes all the more important.  There’s a reason that Tim Tebow is as revered as he is, and it has nothing to do with his on the field exploits.  People (including voters) want to latch onto the positive.  I have a gut feeling that Te’o’s personal narrative is going to matter more and more as we proceed.  If ever there was a reason to break a close vote in favor of a defensive player, it’s what he provides on a personal level that could do it.

Will Manti Te’o complete the fairy tale and win a Heisman?  If I’m being honest with myself, no, I don’t that’s probable.  However, should things fall in place over the next month, I can see the path to the finish line, and I know it can occur.

*BH's note: The Mission Statement for the Heisman Trust, the organization that awards the trophy every year, defines the selection criteria for the award as follows:

The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity. Winners epitomize great ability combined with diligence, perseverance, and hard work. (from www.heisman.com/trust/mission_statement.php).

Nowhere in this description does the trophy limit or inherently favor an offensive player, or a player from any certain position. It merely identifies an outstanding player that exhibits integrity, perseverance and hard work.